Saturday, May 10, 2008

A Poem: An Ode to Bernanke

This poem is so funny that I just have to reproduce in my blog:

An Ode to Bernanke

Ben Bernanke is our crazy Fed chairman, you see
He’s convinced that the U.S. has a full forest of money trees.

So he creates fancy dollar bills out of thin air,
Trying to save the economy from its destructive flair

The first thing he wants is to keep homeowners from defaulting
So he gives a multi-billion dollar bail out to the criminals who were assaulting.

But that wouldn’t be enough to save the economy from a bearish turn
So is it any wonder he had JP Morgan bail out Bear Stearns?

But the one thing he doesn’t realize is that his tricks won’t solve a thing.
He’s just trying to keep the economy together on just one string.

So as he prints money with no regard for inflation,
He’s convinced by doing this he’s going to save the nation.

One dollar, two dollars, ten dollars to buy a bottle of coke.
And as soon as you walk into a supermarket, the prices will make you want to choke.

So what will Ben do when he finds his plan didn’t work?
Will he be forever regarded as an economic jerk?

Will the annals of history reflect on him well?
Not in my mind – and that’s the history I’ll tell.

Whether or not you agree with the 'poet' who composes this is entirely subjective:p.

Friday, May 2, 2008

"Mr Buffet has to answer to his shareholders every year, GIC doesn't have to"

MM Lee said that in an interview by the local newspapers when consulted on whether GIC (and Temasek anyway) can afford to be more transparent. Citing 'strategic considerations' and for fear of 'dependency on pay outs' from the Government, MM Lee said it's best not to be too transparent. To be fair, Buffett is my idol, as to many millions or even billions of other people as well. And there may be a certain bias. But I do have many more questions to ask regarding GIC.

While I can understand the part on 'strategic considerations', I wonder whether it justifies the issue on transparency. While certain hedge funds and venture capitalists or private equity firms are indeed not transparent to the external world, they are fully answerable to their stakeholders. So who are the stakeholders of GIC funds amounting to more than US$300bn? You. Me. Every Singaporean. Then why aren't they answerable to us?

On the part of 'dependency' as people expects more payout: Who cultivate this dependency? While I am not complaining the government giving out cash transfers almost close to every General Elections, isn't it not the same action that is breeding more expectations from the citizens on more handouts? Admitting that it is not an easy issue to solve given the contradictory position on Singapore being a non-welfare state (to pull it from our government's lines: S'pore Inc cannot afford to offer welfare--which economically speaking is quite correct), it is a difficult yet the Government's job to ensure a balance in widening the social safety net and people's expectations. Why then are we paying them so much?

MM Lee went on to say that in comparison with the famed Berkshire Hathaway, GIC is looking at a longer term for investments. This is said so to justify the investments in the US/European banks that has registered paper losses amounting to millions of dollars for Singapore and therefore GIC will evaluate their investments in 5-10 year periods while Warren Buffett takes a shorter term view as he has to answer to his shareholders every year. This seems to insinuate GIC is far more far-sighted than Berkshire.

That statement, is fundamentally flawed. Everyone knows that Warren Buffet takes a very long term view. He likes to buy companies but rarely likes to sell. He looks for companies that can provide cashflow and more earnings indefinitely. In fact, he has held on to Coca-cola stocks longer than most people. And he does incur losses in certain areas sometimes, very much like any investor on Earth, which is clearly stated in the annual financial statements. Just that the gains are usually more than the losses. With a company racking in more than US$100bn in revenue and 1 year return of 23.297% (in USD), it would be interesting to see if GIC can even match up to that standard. To give you a perspective on how big (or how rich) Berkshire is, Berkshire's market capitalization is slightly more than US$200bn, which is almost equivalent to Singapore's GDP (PPP at 2007) .

While GIC pays millions to their board of directors (take it as the management fee--a cost my dear bloggers! for managing Singapore's funds), Warren Buffet opt to get only US$100,000 a year. Are the management in GIC liable for losses? Are their salary pegged to performance? What is the benchmark that GIC is using to evaluate performances of their management (Why would I want to pay a trader more than a million a year if he can only rack in 5% yoy return which barely covers our inflation rate)? Such information is not given to us.

In short, it is totally irresponsible to use that statement to cover up the mysterious GIC and an insult to the Oracle of Omaha.