This is funny. Taken from the link:http://xkcd.com/182/
Wonder how will Mr Nash react when he sees this.
Saturday, August 11, 2007
Comics: Nash Equilibrium
This is funny. Taken from the link:http://xkcd.com/182/
Wonder how will Mr Nash react when he sees this.
Just an excerpt
I read this comment, which I believe is from a nationalistic Indonesian:
Only way for business to thrive is to minimise regulations. No labour laws, no currency laws, no limit on foreign shareholdings etc.
But too much emphasis on capitalism will bring great volatility, and this is not good for the community.
During the time of the british, Singapore was already an established trading centre.
The only university in Malaya was in Singapore(mahathir studied there). All trains from Malaya stops in Singapore. Singapore has the only international port and airport to serve Malaya. All rubber/tin whatever that come from malaya, was exported from Singapore, and some from penang. Singapore already had refineries and was one of the busiest port during the british.
Singapore was not a swamp PAP and LKY wants all of you to believe.
After the british left, Singapore traders made money by smuggling, due to punitive luxury import taxes imposed by the then independent indonesia and malaysia.
During the time of suharto, unscrupulous businessmen from indonesia smuggled subsidised refined oil and sold to bunker companies in Singapore. Those money never came back, but indonesian taxpayers suffered as they had to pay the difference between the selling price and the subsidise prices. The subsidised refined oil actually helped the rich as they are the owners of cars and transport, and eleviated the poor, who could have got that money instead in the form of educational aid or grant for communal upgrade.
In fact, money from much of indonesia resources never came back but are parked in Singapore. So Singapore do not require any resource to be rich. Those resources include timber, coal and possibly sand which were underdeclared when exported.
Now you know why Singapore evolved into a financial centre. presently, it is trying to attract unscrupulous businessmen from china who are uneasy about parking their money in hong kong, which is in chinese territory.
The idea of a casino is more about money laundering than gambling tourist.
LKY hates dissent. hence anyone who challenge him will be put away under ISA or made bankrupt, if they decide to stay put.
Paying ministers and civil servants good money is how he corrupts Singapore. Because they are so highly paid, nobody will dare question LKY’s policies.
Cronyism exist in Singapore. Tat Lee bank belonged to his brother. It was rescued after 1997 financial crisis by merging with Keppel finance and after that both were rescued by merging with DBS. LKY’s son is current PM. His other son was the CEO of singtel, until he was discovered to be having an affair with a women in australia. He resigned, and is now living in australia, I suppose with the new girl. Funny enough, the women is from the company singtel bought at a high value called OPTUS.
If you regard LKY highly, then think about the fate of the current PM’s first wife, who was a doctor from Malaysia, who committed suicide, maybe due to the fact that their two children were albino and the other autistic. But I think it was more due to disappointed father-in-law who could not obtain a perfect grandchild who pressured her into the ultimate oblivion.
LKy’s father, I believe was from semarang. During WWII LKY was a translator for the japanese, whilst his chinese counterparts were fighting against them. The most successful anti japanese army was the MPAJA (Malaya peoples anti japanese army) which were mostly ethnic chinese. They were fighting the japanese because Japan conquered China and the fighting in Malaya was an extension of that war. After the war, the MPAJA transformed and became the CPM (communist party of malay) following the footsteps of China’s Mao Ze Dong. Anyone with any socialist inclination was jailed by LKY under ISA (intenal security act-no need for legal proceedings). The biggest challenge to PAP in the first election, incidentally was Barisan sosialis. The leader of that party have just been freed after many decades in confinement.
Temasek is now controlled by PM’s second wife, LKY’s daughter in law. In fact the whole of Singapore are controlled by one family. Nobody dissent because they are paid to be silent.
The two child policy of LKY rebounded on him. Singapore’s populations is now shrinking. In order to maintain the standard of living, the country now welcomes any rich people from anywhere to reside as PR or citizen. That of course includes many indonesians. These rich indivuduals will bring countless millions into the island state, i.e. making money without having to work is Singapore’s policy from the start.
LKy’s wife has a legal frim which controls the S&P agreement to all HDB flats. One of her junior partners was her ex-daugther-in-law (not sure divorce already or not) who married her second son, who was caught with an affair with a buxom australian from Optus. (Now we know why singtel paid so much for that australian telco).
In the 70’s most Singaporean can speak a sprinkling of bahasa melayu. Presently, the aid workers they sent to aceh in the tsunami aftermath couldn’t communicate with their indonesian counterpart.
Singapore is rich only because the natives of Nusanatara do not understand business philosophy and how the world revolves. As an example, people of timor who welcomed the australian army, only to be told that the gas under the timor sea now belongs to australia.
The natives of nusantara are so comfortable with their lives in the islands that they could not be bothered to sail just a little bit more and establish in australia. Because of this attitude towards life, Singapore has no competitor in the vicinity.
It's interesting to know how Indonesians view Singapore, and maybe a part of how Malaysians or Thais view Singapore as well. Capitalism seems to have create a monster out of Singapore. Scary.
Friday, August 10, 2007
The Herd follows....
The Herd has followed the west. SGX and many indexes worldwide are taking the plunge. In Singapore, companies like Keppel that has reported a strong financial statement for this quarter only a couple of days ago are also taking the hit despite seemingly strong fundamentals. Is it wise to sell off fundamentally strong shares amid this global credit risk uncertainty? My take is No. Although difficult to quantify, I am optimistic on the outlook of the world economy with a growing Asia that it is strong enough to withstand such an episode from the US. Of course, all these are just speculation. Further research has to be done. Rely on facts, data, but not on human behavior.
The Singapore economy has indeed been doing well. Growth has been good and the economy forecast has even been raised. Call for celebration? Nope. Never. The Monetary Authority of Singapore is renown for being conservative. They never over-promise. In a way, it is a strategic move. Politically. I have seldom, if ever, heard of the economy forecast being revised downwards apart from the tumultuous 1997 Asian crisis and 2001 Sars period. Private sector economists predications of the economy growth is now closer to the revised rate as reported in the Straits Times. So what does this show? Either MAS is not as competent as the private sector or they are politically driven, which I believe is a bit of both.
This creates the impression that the Singapore economy is doing well thanks to the government. But is it so? In a way, maybe yes. The tax cuts are indeed a factor in pulling in all the investments, although at a cost of citizens paying more for their part. Just look. The GST will be raised again. Aging population, more infrastructure, tax competitiveness, compensate 'competent and extraordinary' ministers, buffering up the already humongous country reserve/treasury....where's the money got to come from?
While the government tries to put too much credit into their portfolio, lets look at the macro picture. Economies worldwide are performing. The growth of China and India are key components to propel growth elsewhere. Not surprisingly, Singapore economy is boosted too. When times are good, the government claims credit. When times are bad, they try to implement some policies (CPF cuts), and advised the citizens that the government have no choice and it is beyond their control, but will definitely 'assist' the citizens to go through the tough period. So much for propaganda and 'extraordinary ministers that deserve a big pay package'. And when the economy recovers, as every economy does, they claim that it's due to their policies that has helped savage the Singapore economy from doing further south.
An interesting excerpt from the Prime Minister's speech as published in the Straits Times yesterday (national day),"The Government cannot solve all these problems alone. Everyone must play a part. We each must take responsibility for ourselves, make the effort to do well and provide for our families and our old age. At the same time, the more successful Singaporeans must pitch in to help the weaker ones. The more you have gained from society, the greater obligation to give back something to your fellow citizens. Let your giving come from the heart." The problem in this statement refers to widening income gap. Oh, so our dear million-dollar scholastic extraordinary super human ministers cannot solve all the problems. And they expect the citizens to take ownership instead.
It's a sinister plan. Really. Tai-qi-ing all the responsibilities back to the people. Then what does the government does? A best paid government in the world that do not have to bother about social welfare and aging population? How nice. Who has benefited the most from the Singapore society? Who else? The scholars. People who are paid to study at renown universities and sponsored with millions of dollars from the tax payer's' coffer every year. And when they are back, they are paid millions again on their elitist career in the government. So how are they giving back to the society? "We serve the society in the cabinet and help make Singapore a better place to live in!" shouts one. "We discard our million dollar career opportunity in the private sector to work for a basket of peanuts and under scrutiny." shouts another. 'Obligation' to give back 'from the heart' huh? It's laughable. If the pay package can be slashed by half, and even then the ministers are still among the world's best paid, and use that money for the poor, would that not have been better? That would narrow the Gini coefficient greatly. $290 a month for the poor and old? A million dollar is enough to assist 3440 over such people base on this miserable sum of $290 a month. Income distribution, distribute from the top to the bottom. Not middle to bottom and total back to the top. Hypocrisy.
The Singapore economy has indeed been doing well. Growth has been good and the economy forecast has even been raised. Call for celebration? Nope. Never. The Monetary Authority of Singapore is renown for being conservative. They never over-promise. In a way, it is a strategic move. Politically. I have seldom, if ever, heard of the economy forecast being revised downwards apart from the tumultuous 1997 Asian crisis and 2001 Sars period. Private sector economists predications of the economy growth is now closer to the revised rate as reported in the Straits Times. So what does this show? Either MAS is not as competent as the private sector or they are politically driven, which I believe is a bit of both.
This creates the impression that the Singapore economy is doing well thanks to the government. But is it so? In a way, maybe yes. The tax cuts are indeed a factor in pulling in all the investments, although at a cost of citizens paying more for their part. Just look. The GST will be raised again. Aging population, more infrastructure, tax competitiveness, compensate 'competent and extraordinary' ministers, buffering up the already humongous country reserve/treasury....where's the money got to come from?
While the government tries to put too much credit into their portfolio, lets look at the macro picture. Economies worldwide are performing. The growth of China and India are key components to propel growth elsewhere. Not surprisingly, Singapore economy is boosted too. When times are good, the government claims credit. When times are bad, they try to implement some policies (CPF cuts), and advised the citizens that the government have no choice and it is beyond their control, but will definitely 'assist' the citizens to go through the tough period. So much for propaganda and 'extraordinary ministers that deserve a big pay package'. And when the economy recovers, as every economy does, they claim that it's due to their policies that has helped savage the Singapore economy from doing further south.
An interesting excerpt from the Prime Minister's speech as published in the Straits Times yesterday (national day),"The Government cannot solve all these problems alone. Everyone must play a part. We each must take responsibility for ourselves, make the effort to do well and provide for our families and our old age. At the same time, the more successful Singaporeans must pitch in to help the weaker ones. The more you have gained from society, the greater obligation to give back something to your fellow citizens. Let your giving come from the heart." The problem in this statement refers to widening income gap. Oh, so our dear million-dollar scholastic extraordinary super human ministers cannot solve all the problems. And they expect the citizens to take ownership instead.
It's a sinister plan. Really. Tai-qi-ing all the responsibilities back to the people. Then what does the government does? A best paid government in the world that do not have to bother about social welfare and aging population? How nice. Who has benefited the most from the Singapore society? Who else? The scholars. People who are paid to study at renown universities and sponsored with millions of dollars from the tax payer's' coffer every year. And when they are back, they are paid millions again on their elitist career in the government. So how are they giving back to the society? "We serve the society in the cabinet and help make Singapore a better place to live in!" shouts one. "We discard our million dollar career opportunity in the private sector to work for a basket of peanuts and under scrutiny." shouts another. 'Obligation' to give back 'from the heart' huh? It's laughable. If the pay package can be slashed by half, and even then the ministers are still among the world's best paid, and use that money for the poor, would that not have been better? That would narrow the Gini coefficient greatly. $290 a month for the poor and old? A million dollar is enough to assist 3440 over such people base on this miserable sum of $290 a month. Income distribution, distribute from the top to the bottom. Not middle to bottom and total back to the top. Hypocrisy.
Thursday, August 9, 2007
A group of sheeps....where's the shepherd?
The economics journalist is tired and burdened with some personal issues. So this post will be kept summarized and short.
Dow fell more than 2% last Friday, causing panic in most Asian markets the following Monday with fears of burgeoning sub-prime mortgage risk in the U.S. Bear Sterns with their affected under-performing 2 hedge funds with large credit risk exposure (to the sub-prime mortgage risk), Macquarie Bank from Australia, and shortly the liquidation and bankruptcy of American Home Mortgage Investment Group lead the pack in a bear push in the global financial meltdown. The news sent investors rushing to liquid their shares for fears of more downturns. Of course, this lead to a domino effect. Singapore was badly hit at down ~3%. Only the Shanghai Stock Exchange was not battered an inch and went on to register a slight hike, which I suspect is due to the Chinese optimism of their red hot economy.
The next day, the US stock market bounced back strongly prompting other stock markets around the world to follow. SGX, with the news that exposure to the sub-prime mortgage risk in the US in the 3 local banks as minimal gained strongly, mimicking the US scenario. It seems to me that selling and buying of shares, and in turn leading to ups and downs of the markets, have been primarily fueled by emotional and perceptive actions rather than based on hard facts. Take for example you bought a share at $10. Last Monday, it fell to $8. You panicked and sold it off. On Tuesday, you looked in disgust as the share climbed to $9. You gained confidence and purchased back the share at $9. It closed at $10. So what have you lost? ($10-$8)+(-$9+$10)=$1? No. You did not. You have lost far more than that. You lost (1) transaction fees when you sell and buy the shares. (2) emotional strain. While I am in no position to comment on the mechanics of the market , I believe that what is more important is: the company fundamentals. As long as the company is fundamentally strong, there's no reason to sell out in bearish times as it should perform positively in the long run.
Yet, just when I am typing this post, the US market is taking another tumble with the Dow falling more than 100pts and other major indices like Nasdaq and S&P 500 going south. This is reported to be due to BNP Paribas freezing three securities funds that struggled to find liquidity in the U.S. subprime mortgage market. Other reasons include credit risk exposure being almost impossible to quantify and investment banks taking the most hit from this episode. Although ought to learn their lesson, there's high probability the Asian market will be taking hint from the west again. Should it happen again, it will present another good opportunity to grab gems on the cheap.
The human mind has the uncanny ability to turn a blind eye to facts and play on emotion and (usually distorted) perception. And like sheeps, they flock in groups. Herd mentality.
I read this statement somewhere and although I have no way of authenticating it, I like what was stated: Einstein once said,"There's 2 things that are infinite in the world. The Universe and human stupidity. And I wasn't sure about the Universe."
Dow fell more than 2% last Friday, causing panic in most Asian markets the following Monday with fears of burgeoning sub-prime mortgage risk in the U.S. Bear Sterns with their affected under-performing 2 hedge funds with large credit risk exposure (to the sub-prime mortgage risk), Macquarie Bank from Australia, and shortly the liquidation and bankruptcy of American Home Mortgage Investment Group lead the pack in a bear push in the global financial meltdown. The news sent investors rushing to liquid their shares for fears of more downturns. Of course, this lead to a domino effect. Singapore was badly hit at down ~3%. Only the Shanghai Stock Exchange was not battered an inch and went on to register a slight hike, which I suspect is due to the Chinese optimism of their red hot economy.
The next day, the US stock market bounced back strongly prompting other stock markets around the world to follow. SGX, with the news that exposure to the sub-prime mortgage risk in the US in the 3 local banks as minimal gained strongly, mimicking the US scenario. It seems to me that selling and buying of shares, and in turn leading to ups and downs of the markets, have been primarily fueled by emotional and perceptive actions rather than based on hard facts. Take for example you bought a share at $10. Last Monday, it fell to $8. You panicked and sold it off. On Tuesday, you looked in disgust as the share climbed to $9. You gained confidence and purchased back the share at $9. It closed at $10. So what have you lost? ($10-$8)+(-$9+$10)=$1? No. You did not. You have lost far more than that. You lost (1) transaction fees when you sell and buy the shares. (2) emotional strain. While I am in no position to comment on the mechanics of the market , I believe that what is more important is: the company fundamentals. As long as the company is fundamentally strong, there's no reason to sell out in bearish times as it should perform positively in the long run.
Yet, just when I am typing this post, the US market is taking another tumble with the Dow falling more than 100pts and other major indices like Nasdaq and S&P 500 going south. This is reported to be due to BNP Paribas freezing three securities funds that struggled to find liquidity in the U.S. subprime mortgage market. Other reasons include credit risk exposure being almost impossible to quantify and investment banks taking the most hit from this episode. Although ought to learn their lesson, there's high probability the Asian market will be taking hint from the west again. Should it happen again, it will present another good opportunity to grab gems on the cheap.
The human mind has the uncanny ability to turn a blind eye to facts and play on emotion and (usually distorted) perception. And like sheeps, they flock in groups. Herd mentality.
I read this statement somewhere and although I have no way of authenticating it, I like what was stated: Einstein once said,"There's 2 things that are infinite in the world. The Universe and human stupidity. And I wasn't sure about the Universe."
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