Sunday, September 30, 2007

Multi-millionaire gave up US Green Card for S'pore

Sometimes I wonder why the heck would our dear Straits Times/ Sunday Times report on such 'mundane' stuff. Either our editors are running out of things to write or our country is just boring to begin with. Or is it propaganda?

The reported millionaire from US is Mr Satinder Garcha who had recently outbid 7 other developers for the 71,600 sq feet prime site at Sentosa Cove for S$80m where he will be building 20 villas which are expected to sell for $10m each. Given the buoyant economy and rising property prices in recent months, it spells a viable business opportunity.

Reason for coming into Singapore? Not for our 'world class' city. But for the sake of buying land and property. Plus low taxes and a conducive business environment. Singapore has become a haven for rich capitalists. Going by the Hecksher-Ohlin Model, the Stolpher-Samuelson Theorem states that abundant factor gains while the scare factor loses. Meaning in capitalist Singapore, expect the rich (capitalists) to get richer and the poor (labourers) to get poorer. On the other side, there's gains to be made, as in this case there could be more tax to be collected and more money could be attracted into Singapore's booming economy. The question is whether the losers can or will be compensated for being the sacrificial lamb.

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Trying to be God in creating a Money Making Machine?

"Morgan Stanley 3Q Profit Down"
Screams the headline after the Fed announces a half point cut in interest rate which got all markets bullish.

Then I came across this news. Morgan Stanley 3Q profit down due to global credit crunch of the sub-prime mortgage.

Profit for the three months ended Aug. 31 fell to $1.54 billion, or $1.44 per share, from $1.85 billion, or $1.75 per share, in the year ago period. This year's third quarter included only one month of results from Discover Financial Services, which split from Morgan Stanley in June.

Stripping out profit from the credit-card unit, profit fell 7 percent to $1.47 billion, or $1.38 per share, from $1.59 billion, or $1.50 per share.

Stronger investment banking fees, largely from deals announced well before the third quarter, helped drive revenue up 13 percent to $7.96 billion from $7.06 billion a year earlier.

However, that still was not enough to beat Wall Street projections for a profit of $1.54 per share on $8.35 billion of revenue, according to analysts polled by Thomson Financial.

The company said it saw losses of $940 million in the quarter from the decreased market value of loans on its books as well as other financing commitments. Those losses cut 33 cents per share off of its bottom-line results.

Quantitative investments, which use computer models to automatically decide when to buy and sell stocks, were also a problem across Wall Street this summer. Morgan Stanley pegged its quantitative trading losses at $480 million during the quarter.

Investment banking was among the bright spots; revenue from the business surged 45 percent to $1.4 billion.

Morgan Stanley shares fell 76 cents to $67.75 in premarket electronic trading after closing Tuesday at $68.51. The stock has tumbled 24 percent since the end of the second quarter, as financial services firms were squeezed by defaults in mortgage positions and a tightening credit environment.


I laugh on seeing an investment banking giant like Morgan Stanley thinking that they could profit on creating a money making quantitative model. If only the world is so simple (sure, all quants would argue their models are intricately designed to handle all complexities), the banks can just design a model that helps them predict TOTO/Lottery winning combinations. I think it's more sane than creating models that automatically invest for you.

Sunday, September 16, 2007

Wages rising faster than at any time since 2000

So the wages are rising faster than anything in Singapore since 2000? And just a few days ago, the Straits Times reported on increased inflation. Is that a justification for the inflation? I wonder....

One of the things that we must look into is: where did Ministry of Manpower Labor derive this statistic? If one is talking about the top echelons, sure. Top CEOs are paid exorbitant bonuses and salaries, even Warren Buffet view it with much negativity. How on earth HP finds the justification for 'compensating' ex-CEO Carly Fiorina by sacking her for the slowed growth of HP during her tenure with US$21 million in cash is beyond me or any sense of logic. And how can mere singaporeans forget the millions paid to the government and the increases for civil servants? If such payments are taken into considerations, of course wages are rising.

Why would the paper not report on the other side of the coin where the less privileged of the society are under threat from globalization on downward pressure on their wages? The Straits Times can afford to be more objective.

And the recent price increase in bus fares--another controversial topic. While there is nothing wrong with businesses wanting more profits (we live in a capitalist world after all), the social question we need to ask is: how much is enough? Microsoft irks many with their humongous profits that got many competitors jealous many years ago (and still do now). And the monopoly status SBS enjoys (no, SMART is under the same umbrella if you ask me. The bus routes never duplicate citing efficiency in using resource as a reason)does not help much in convincing singaporeans on the increase.

The poor would view the rich as being greedy in wanting more profits at their expense. One year of voucher for a permanent increase? Who are they gonna fool? The thing is, the price increase is never consistent with the service standards. Buses are slow to arrive (the longest I have ever waited is 1 hr in 64km square Singapore), cramp to the brim (SBS wanna optimize their resources at the citizen's discomfort?), and poor facilities. While they blame external factors, I do not see how they plan to tackle these problems.

If you do not believe me, all you have to do is to take a few buses at any point in time and look closely. Dusty window panels, falling seats, screws falling apart, and (this irks me the most) dripping air-conditioners especially in rainy days. The worst I've ever seen is a 'free-flow' dripping air-conditioned bus in a stormy day. It's like raining in the bus as well. So much for 'first-class' transportation in Singapore huh? While they love to compare to higher cost cities such as London, USA and even Hong Kong and Taiwan, which also command higher salaries, they NEVER did compare with cheaper cities like Thailand and Malaysia.

Increase fares? Please rise standards of service as well.